Monday, June 27, 2005

Super-rising China vs. Captain America

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China's rise is extraordinary. At an amazing rate China is quickly becoming the world's next superpower and the speed of China's rise seems to be surprising the US according to some recent reports. Combined economic and military growth is rapidly propelling China into a position which the US is increasingly uneasy about and perhaps downright fearful of since China is still tightly controlled by a camarilla of the CCP.
The new strength of China has been recently demonstrated in business by recent high profile aquisitons and attempted aquisitions. Chinese computer maker Lenovo acquired the personal computer division of IBM, while in the appliance realm, China's largest appliance maker Haier has put in a bid to buy Maytag. China oil company SINOPEC has also recently bought into the Canadian Oil Sands. This last move is a clear demonstration of the voracious appetite China is continuing to develop for energy and resources to fuel its growth. In further effort to secure oil China's most recent move has been to put in a bit for the american oil company UNOCAL. This last move has forced the US into a tough position.
The 18.5 billion dollar UNOCAL bid by China National Offshore Oil Corporation is forcing some tough questions for US. There is pressure to scuttle the deal based on national security reasons as oil is becoming a an increasingly scarce and high priced resource. The US has its hands on the taps in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, areas of the Caspian basin and the ability pipe oil through Afghanistan and use Afghanistan as a base to pressure Iran. China by no means has the security of safe and reliable future sources of oil which it will need. The CNOOC deal would certainly be great for China in establishing a greater presence in the world oil market. With the US committment to 'free trade' policies and its declared position as a 'friend' of China and NOT a strategic competitor the US will be hard pressed to scuttle the deal without having some heavy repurrcussions for the US-CHINA relationship and the way they view each other.
On the military front China has been rapidly expanding its forces with the recent acquistion of sea-based nuclear missile firing capability, a new long range cruise missile and recent weapons purchases from Russia. The Chinese military is modernizing at an astonishing rate instilling greater fear in Washington. The Taiwan situation of course is the potential spark that could set of the potential US-CHINA powder keg. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
The US must reconsider its current position. Can the United States really pursue a security policy which will not allow for another nation to reach it's capabilities as declared in its most recent Bush National Security strategy? Can the US expect to deny the ability of another nation to enjoy the same security apparatus as the US enjoys. China does not want to superpower second fiddle and rely on others for security. The US has great independence as a by-product of its might and why should China not expect the same right. The US cannot expect other nations to simply fall in line and blindly accept the US as a benevolent superpower. The notion of the US being the guardian of truth, justice, democracy and all the other fabled falacies the US myth stands on have been eroded too far. China's history and an inability to put any trust in the US will certainly lead China to increasing military build up and pursuit of independent strength. Does this come as any surprise? It shouldn't.
China's conversion to capitalism was a pragmatic change to the world situation. China knew if they did not modernise they were doomed to future intrusion and perhaps subjugation once again by foreign powers. The change to capitalism and the massive market that China commands has now brought the riches that China needs to modernise and return the fore of the global competition between nations. How will the US keep them down and but keep them contented?


ny times unocal story

Gertz story on threat from China
more from Gertz and the washington times
People's Dialy Op-ed on US Preaching Chinese Military Threat

piece on diminishing oil


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